Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Can the 2013 Stock Market Rally Last?


Can the 2013 Stock Market Rally Last? Here we are in Spring, feeling optimistic and hoping against all hopes that this 2013 stock market rally will last! But can it? Is it sustainable or has this just been a pleasant dream?

We hit a high in March 2013– the first in four years. Can it last?
Can the 2013 Stock Market Rally Last?
Let’s take a look at what some of the experts have been saying.
Business Insider says that this is one of the longest rallies in recent history, but if there’s any truth in trends, we’re edging in on a new phase: “The market wants to go higher and higher it will go” we’re told. Maybe so but nothing lasts forever and after a rally of this duration, of this magnitude, recent history suggests digestion.”
Retirement Guys of the Toledo Press are saying now could be a great time: “The current bull market for the S&P 500 reached four years in length on March 9, 2013. Of the 10 other bull markets that have occurred since 1950, the shortest duration was 2.1 years. The average duration of all 11 bull markets since 1950 (i.e., the current bull market is the 11th) is 4.7 years. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the stock market.”

That’s a good point– the average length of a stock market rally since 1950 has been 4.7 years. The shortest rally has been 2.1 years. So there’s a chance that we are looking at great window in time for the near future. But then again– there’s a first time for everything…

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